Real Estate Sector Will Register the Third Best Year Ever in 2020
The pandemic has prevented the real estate sector from reaching a new peak this year, but it will still be the third best year ever in terms of transaction volume. Until the pandemic appeared, it was estimated that 2020 would once again be the best year in all real estate sectors; 2020 will be another historic year despite the current situation, remaining as the third best year after 2018 and 2019 in terms of volume traded. In this context, the estimates that point to the commercial real estate reach 2.7 billion euros in properties traded in 2020, and the transactions involving the residential segment reach 23 billion euros. In 2019, these segments registered 3.2 billion and 25 billion euros, respectively, in traded properties. Looking at 2021, the portfolio businesses and the signs of recovery that began to be felt from the second quarter of this year, after the fall observed in the second quarter, indicate that the next year may exceed the results of 2020 . Portugal may even be one of the winners in terms of real estate in 2021 and following years because it is increasingly a country where people want to live, work and study. But for this to happen, it needs to be given signs that there is a kind of “green route” for the investors to settle here, that is, stability. In this context, it points to Golden Visas and the need to maintain the regime without the changes signalled in the legislative authorization included in the State Budget for 2020.
On the price side, and after easing the upward trend that had already begun to be observed, the pandemic came to impose a stabilization. In the most difficult times prices tend to stabilize and that is what is happening. From now on there may be a downward correction, but not in the centres of the main cities. Where this downward correction can take place and also reach the centres of the main cities is in the housing lease, because the houses previously reserved for local accommodation are now available for longer term rentals. Even so, it is believed that this will be a momentary situation that will end as soon as the pandemic allows the movement of tourists to return to its normal pace. Stability was also what was seen in terms of commercial real estate prices (segment including shopping centres, offices or hotels). If there is pressure to go down, it will be without more peripheral areas or in secondary cities. Although teleworking has become the norm for many workers, this will have no effect on the dynamics of commercial real estate. Working from home is a counter-measure. The offices are work spaces and will not be replaced.
